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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN TO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to perhaps scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated
across a portion of the central Great Plains, centered on 3 to 10 PM
CDT.

...Central Great Plains...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central Rockies will move
east-northeast into the Dakotas by tomorrow morning. Large-scale
ascent associated with this wave will impinge on a destabilizing
downstream air mass to aid in scattered thunderstorms over the
higher terrain spreading across the High Plains later this
afternoon. This initial activity will be high-based, forming over
weak but sufficient moisture and deep/well-mixed sub-cloud layers. 
Wind profiles west of the lee trough will be nearly unidirectional,
limiting effective shear, despite gradually increasing
mid/upper-level speeds. Scattered strong to isolated severe gusts
and small to marginally severe hail will be the main hazards this
afternoon amid moderate mid-level lapse rates.

Thunderstorms forming on or crossing the lee trough may eventually
gain greater severe potential in the early evening, as activity
impinges on a more favorably moist boundary layer, currently evident
in GOES PW imagery across the eastern half of NE. While the
expectation is for the character of convection to be
outflow-dominant/cold-pool-driven by this point, sufficient veering
and strengthening of the wind profile with height will yield an
elongated hodograph that would support potential for a few embedded
supercells. The more probable evolution is for this to maintain
persistence of a mostly isolated and marginal severe wind/hail
threat after dusk into the late evening, before convective
intensities subside overnight.

...Southern High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms should develop along a portion of the dryline
centered on the Panhandles where surface temperatures breach 90 F.
Modest mid-level lapse rates and weak buoyancy will be limiting
factors to storm intensity. But 20-25 kt effective shear and steep
low-level lapse rates could support locally strong gusts in the more
robust storms during the late afternoon to early evening.

..Grams/Moore.. 09/16/2022