Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe threat will be possible in parts of the Upper
Midwest Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Upper Midwest...
Mid-level flow will beco*e westerly on Sunday throughout the Upper
Midwest as an upper-level ridge builds across the south-central
states. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into
mid Mississippi Valley during the day. Isolated thunderstorm
development will be possible during the day along a corridor of
instability from eastern parts of the central Plains into the
western Great Lakes. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the
shortwave trough, thunderstorm development is expected to steadily
increase in the late afternoon and early evening. It appears that a
cluster of storms will form near the nose of the low-level jet and
move east-southeastward from Iowa into northern Illinois.

At the surface, a front is forecast across southern Iowa extending
eastward into western Lower Michigan. South of the boundary,
moderate instability is forecast to develop by mid to late
afternoon, with MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In
addition, forecast soundings have steep low to mid-level lapse rates
with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range. This suggests
supercells will be possible with a threat for large hail. The
supercell threat is forecast to be the greatest from far northeast
Missouri into northwestern Illinois and southeastern Iowa, where the
models suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will be
maximized. Although large hail will likely be the greatest threat,
wind damage will also be possible especially if a cluster can
organize during the early evening.

..Broyles.. 09/16/2022