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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper pattern early D4/Friday is forecast to be characterized by
modest cyclonic flow from the western CONUS into the Plains and
upper ridging from the Southeast across the Upper Midwest. A
shortwave trough embedded within the cyclonic flow over the
northern/central Plains is expected to move from the Mid MO Valley
into the Upper Midwest on D4/Friday. Thunderstorms are possible near
the front associated with this wave, primarily D4/Friday night amid
a strengthening low-level jet. Thunderstorms are anticipated again
across the Upper Midwest D5/Saturday evening and overnight as the
low-level jet strengthens again from the central Plains into the
Upper Midwest.

Medium-range guidance continues to show both run-to-run and
model-to-model variability with the evolution of an upper trough
expected to drop into the Pacific Northwest on D5/Saturday. More
recent runs of the guidance have trended towards deep upper
troughing over the western CONUS by D6/Sunday, in contrast to the a
more progressive evolution of this system in earlier runs. Some
severe appears possible whenever this system ejects into the Plains,
but variability within the guidance currently limits forecast
confidence. Based on the most recent guidance, the highest potential
for severe thunderstorms is on D7/Monday from the central Plains
into the Upper Midwest.