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Mesoscale Discussion 1777
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022

Areas affected...eastern Virginia...much of the Delmarva
Peninsula...central North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 121822Z - 122045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to gradually intensify while
spreading east of the Blue Ridge toward the Chesapeake and coastal
plain through late afternoon, with some posing a risk to producing
locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief, weak tornado or
two.  It is not clear that a severe weather watch is needed, but
trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Mid/upper flow is beco*ing increasingly difluent and
divergent across the Mid Atlantic region, with more substantive
mid-level height falls forecast through late afternoon, downstream
of a broad, slow moving mid-level low centered just south of Lake
Michigan.  Associated forcing for ascent has already contributed to
considerable thunderstorm development along and east of the Virginia
Blue Ridge.  While individual cells tend to advect northeastward
within 30+ kt southwesterly deep-layer mean ambient flow, as
associated cold pools continue to gradually deepen/strengthen, an
eastward progression toward the Chesapeake and coastal plain appears
likely through 22-00Z, with additional storm development possible
southward along lee surface troughing into the Carolina Piedmont.

While lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and low-level flow/shear
are rather modest to weak, seasonably moist thermodynamic profiles
are characterized by moderately large CAPE (on the order of 1500
J/kg), in the presence of sufficient deep-layer shear for organizing
thunderstorm development.  This may include the gradual evolution
and intensification of supercells structures, and perhaps eventually
a couple of upscale growing clusters.  This may be acco*panied by
some risk for a brief/weak tornado, but locally damaging wind gusts
seems the primary potential severe hazard aided by downdrafts
enhanced by heavy precipitation loading and melting of small hail.

..Kerr/Hart.. 09/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   39127712 39567653 39647543 38567530 37157626 35667864
            35648002 37187852 38377785 39127712