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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal risk for a few wind gusts, or a brief tornado, is
forecast for parts of the Southeast Saturday.

...Southeast...

Upper low is currently located over southeast LA. This feature is
forecast to move little during the upco*ing 24-hour period;
although, northern-stream upper trough will eventually force this
low to open up and begin to eject northeast early Sunday. Latest
diagnostic and model data suggest a corridor of modest
mid-high-level flow will extend across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
into the Carolinas much of the period. This stronger flow is
expected to aid convection within a seasonally moist flow regime
characterized by PW values near/above 2 inches. Of some concern is
the surface baroclinic zone that is currently oriented across
northern FL/southeast GA. This boundary should advance north into
the Carolinas later today where weak low-level warm advection is
expected to be focused. While deep-layer flow/shear are not expected
to be that significant, adequate flow is expected to aid weak
organization such that a few strong wind gusts, or perhaps even a
brief weak tornado can not be ruled out. Diurnal heating should
contribute to destabilization, and the strongest updrafts are
expected during the afternoon/evening hours.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 09/10/2022