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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few stronger thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley,
Lower Colorado River Valley, and the Florida Big Bend region Sunday
morning into early Monday morning. Severe thunderstorm potential is
low.

...Mid MS Valley into the Middle OH Valley...
Upper troughing is forecast to extend along the MS Valley early
Sunday morning, with an embedded shortwave trough extended from the
Upper Midwest into the Lower MO Valley. This embedded shortwave is
expected to continue eastward across the Mid MS Valley while
maturing into a closed circulation. An associated surface low will
progress eastward just ahead of the parent shortwave throughout the
first half of the period, before the system slows, matures, and
beco*es more vertically stacked.

Ample low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the surface low
and attendant front, with dewpoints likely in the mid to upper 60s.
However, widespread cloud cover will temper heating and the coldest
mid-level temperatures will remain west of the surface cold front,
limiting the buoyancy. Moderate mid-level flow will acco*pany the
deepening upper low, but it too will remain west of the surface cold
front. As a result, modest buoyancy and shear are expected to limit
storm severity.

...Southern CA into AZ...
The remnants of Tropical Storm Kay are expected to gradually move
eastward towards southern CA on Sunday. This will contribute to
increased low- and mid-level moisture across southern CA and the
Southwest, supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
anticipated across the region. The highest thunderstorm coverage is
currently expected across the higher terrain of AZ and west-central
NM. A few stronger storms are possible, particularly if any storms
can persist over the lower deserts where steep low-level lapse rates
will exist. Even so, warm temperatures aloft will limit buoyancy and
vertical shear will remain weak, tempering the overall severe
potential.  

...FL Big Bend and vicinity...
A weakening shortwave trough is forecast to be centered over the
Lower MS Valley early Sunday morning.  Ascent attendant to the
shortwave co*bined with ample low-level moisture is expected to
support at least scattered thunderstorms Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon. Additionally, modestly enhanced mid-level flow is
expected between this shortwave and subtropical ridging off the
Southeast coast. A strong storm or two is possible within this
environment, but coverage is currently expected to be too low to
merit probabilities with this outlook.

..Mosier.. 09/10/2022