Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Fri Sep 09 2022

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few stronger thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley as
well as the Lower Colorado River Valley from Sunday afternoon into
early Monday morning. Severe thunderstorm potential is low.

...Synopsis...
Upper troughing is forecast to extend along the MS Valley early
Sunday morning. This troughing is expected to be flanked by upper
ridging, one centered off the Southeast coast and the other
extending from northern Mexico into the Great Basin. A shortwave
trough will likely be embedded within the large upper troughing,
extending from the Upper MS Valley southwestward into the central
Plains early in the period. This shortwave is then expected to
progress eastward while maturing, evolving into a closed upper low
centered over northern IL by early Monday morning.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Kay will likely be centered off the
southern CA coast, contributing to increased low- and mid-level
moisture across the Southwest. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are anticipated across the region, with the highest coverage across
AZ. 

...Mid MS Valley into the Middle OH Valley... 
Moderate mid-level flow will acco*pany the maturing shortwave
mentioned in the synopsis, spreading across the Mid MS Valley during
the afternoon and evening. An associated surface low and attendant
cold front are expected to move from IL to OH. A moist air mass will
be in place ahead of this front, but buoyancy will remain modest
given the poor mid-level lapse rates in place. Even so, enough
buoyancy should be in place for thunderstorms along and ahead of the
front. However, the stronger mid-level flow should lag behind the
front, displaced west of any storms. The modest buoyancy and shear
should limit storm severity.

...Lower CO River Valley and vicinity...
Some enhancement of the low- to mid-level flow is possible between
the remnants of Kay and the upper ridging to its east, particularly
if the remnants drift eastward throughout the day. This enhancement
would support stronger shear and an increased potential for a few
stronger storms. However, this strengthening of the low- to
mid-level flow is most likely overnight and into early Monday. As a
result, low-level nocturnal stabilization should temper the overall
severe potential.

..Mosier.. 09/09/2022