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Mesoscale Discussion 1771
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0546 PM CDT Thu Sep 08 2022

Areas affected...Parts of Southwest FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 082246Z - 090045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible over
parts of Southwest FL during the next couple hours. A watch will not
be needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from BYX/AMX shows a loosely
organized band of convection tracking eastward at around 20 kt
across the Gulf waters off Southwest FL. This activity is tracking
along the southern periphery of 20-30 kt effective shear per
regional VWP and RAP mesoanalysis, which could continue to support
weak organization. Surface observations show some recovery of the
boundary layer over parts of Southwest FL (temperatures in the lower
80s), which may support the maintenance of this convective band as
it approaches the coast. Given the linear mode, isolated strong to
locally damaging gusts may be possible if this activity can remain
surface-based as it moves onshore. The marginal and brief nature of
the threat precludes watch issuance.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 09/08/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

LAT...LON   25738158 25888188 26368192 26468165 26458143 26158125
            25898098 25558079 25328101 25418128 25738158