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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 08 2022

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the
Southeast and Southwest on Friday, with a risk for occasional
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado.

...Southeast...
A weak upper trough/low should remain centered over the lower MS
Valley on Friday. Modestly enhanced low/mid-level flow is forecast
to be present on the east side of the upper low, mainly over parts
of FL into southern GA and SC. A seasonably moist airmass, with
surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, will likely exist
across these areas along/south of a weak front. Even with mid-level
lapse rates remaining poor, daytime heating should encourage the
development of weak to moderate instability through Friday
afternoon, with greater instability forecast with southward extent
across the FL Peninsula.

Most guidance indicates that thunderstorms will be ongoing Friday
morning over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, perhaps extending into
parts of north/central FL. Current expectations are for loosely
organized convective clusters to spread generally east/northeastward
across much of FL through the day, and into southern GA and coastal
SC through Friday night. With generally modest deep-layer shear
around 30 kt or less, multicells should be the main convective mode.
Occasional damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores,
particularly where low-level lapse rates can beco*e steepened
through diurnal heating. A brief tornado also appears possible,
mainly near the weak front as thunderstorms cross this boundary.

...Southwest...
Hurricane Kay is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move
slowly north-northwestward Friday near the northern Baja Peninsula
while gradually weakening. Consensus of 12Z guidance shows that
enhanced low/mid-level east-southeasterly winds will overspread
parts of southern CA/AZ through the day. Even with widespread
mid/upper-level cloudiness present over these areas, it appears
possible that filtered daytime heating may allow weak instability to
develop on the eastern periphery of the broad precipitation shield.

If even modest instability can be realized Friday afternoon, then
the strong low-level flow and related 0-1 km SRH would favor updraft
organization with any low-topped cells that can form in an outer
rain/convective band. High-resolution guidance shows some
variability on whether this scenario occurs. Regardless, opted to
include low severe probabilities for strong/gusty convective winds
and a brief tornado across a small part of southern CA and
southwestern AZ given the favorable kinematic fields that are
forecast.

..Gleason.. 09/08/2022