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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Thu Sep 08 2022

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UPPER MIDWEST
AND WY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and locally damaging winds may occur this
evening into the overnight across parts of the Upper Midwest.
Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over the Wyoming vicinity
during the mid to late afternoon.

...Upper Midwest...
Low/mid-level warm advection is expected from a stout upstream
EML regime, emanating from where record high temperatures have
been set in prior days over a large portion of the interior West.
This, in co*bination with a return-flow process that lacks robust
connection to the western Gulf and therefore limits rich
boundary-layer moisture, should keep an impinging cold front capped
from thunderstorm development through late afternoon. By evening,
mid-level height falls should overspread the front in advance of a
broad upper trough reaching the Prairie Provinces to northern Great
Plains. Strengthening low-level convergence and low-level warm/moist
advection may provide sufficient ascent to weaken the EML and yield
isolated thunderstorms initially from west-central to northeast MN.
Some guidance suggest this process will be more pronounced overnight
and thus displaced southward. Regardless of the spatiotemporal
differences, convection is most likely to be rooted on and to the
cool side of the southeast-progressing cold front. Deep-layer winds
will largely be stronger deeper into the stable air mass away from
the immediate front, but still adequate to support rotating updrafts
amid moderate elevated buoyancy. Isolated large hail is the primary
threat, but locally damaging winds from strong gusts are possible.

...WY vicinity...
The trailing portion of a cold front will move south from eastern MT
into northern WY this afternoon. As this occurs, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain of
northwest/north-central WY, then spread east-southeast. Moisture
will be poor with surface dewpoints generally in the 30s, but steep
low/middle-level lapse rates should support meager MLCAPE to around
300 J/kg. High-based, skeletal convection may produce isolated
severe gusts, augmented by momentum transport from strengthening
mid-level winds, and small hail. This threat should diminish rapidly
near sunset.

...Central/south FL Peninsula...
Multiple rounds of scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms are expected
into this afternoon. Locally strong wind gusts might occur in the
deepest updrafts, especially where the greatest boundary-layer
heating occurs, which is likely over the southern half of the
peninsula based on early day visible imagery. 12Z soundings confirm
that deep-layer shear is quite weak (around 10 kts) in Miami and Key
West, but a bit greater (around 20 kts) in Tampa Bay where low-level
SRH is also minimal. This suggests slow-moving, pulse updrafts
should dominate.

..Grams/Bunting.. 09/08/2022