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Mesoscale Discussion 1767
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Wed Sep 07 2022

Areas affected...Portions of southeast Texas...southern
Louisiana...and far southwest Mississippi.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 071943Z - 072115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms are possible this
afternoon/evening across portions of southeast Texas and southern
Louisiana and vicinity.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along a remnant
front/outflow boundary from morning convection which extends from
southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. Additionally, numerous
thunderstorms have developed in the uncapped airmass across eastern
Louisiana and southwest Mississippi. Shear is very weak in this
region, 10-15 knots per area VWPs. However, strong instability (2500
to 3000 J/kg) amid a very moist airmass (~1.8 inch PWATs) will
result in some strong updraft/downdraft pairs and the potential for
a strong wind gust or two and isolated large hail. Expect these
storms continue to propagate south through the day amid light
northerly flow.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 09/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   31329583 31039544 30759436 31049335 31389293 31769235
            31729140 31369082 30979073 30509127 29899202 29749306
            29679415 29499498 29619598 30389628 31329583