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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CDT Wed Sep 07 2022

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OR TO
SOUTHWEST ID AND SOUTHERN MT...

...SUMMARY...
A potential outbreak of dry thunderstorms may yield scattered severe
wind gusts, a few of which could be significant, across portions of
the interior Northwest, centered on mid-afternoon to early evening.

...Interior Northwest...
A high-impact to extreme fire weather day is anticipated this
afternoon into the evening. Please see the latest Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook for details on all hazards. 

A classic breakdown of the upper ridge is expected as a vigorous
shortwave trough near the northwest BC coast shifts inland towards
the Canadian Rockies. Mid-level height falls acco*panying this wave
will overspread the interior Northwest as a belt of 50-kt 500-mb
westerlies beco*es centered from northeast OR/eastern WA across
northern MT into southern SK. Along the southern periphery of the
stronger flow, GOES imagery confirms the presence of a broad PW
plume of 0.50 to 0.75 in across the northern Great Basin into MT
around the stout 600-dm 500-mb anticyclone over UT. The presence of
widespread record warmth attendant to this anticyclone will yield
very deeply mixed boundary layers, especially east of the Rockies in
MT and across the ID Snake River Valley into southeast OR. 

Isolated dry thunderstorms this morning will increase in coverage
this afternoon as both the boundary layer deepens and large-scale
forcing for ascent strengthens. While buoyancy will be quite meager
with MLCAPE of 300 J/kg or less, the extreme lapse rate profiles to
500 mb will support dry downbursts mixing to the surface from
high-based/low-topped convection. The 00Z hr** along with early
morning guidance are consistent in suggesting severe wind gusts will
be prevalent within this fast-moving, skeletal activity. The eastern
extent of this threat may include amalgamating convective outflows
which could maintain severe gusts in the northern High Plains
despite diminishing lightning flashes this evening. 

...Southeast TX and southwest LA...
A minor mid-level impulse evident in water vapor imagery over the
Ark-La-Tex should gradually move south-southwest into south TX by
this evening. A pocket of relatively cooler mid-level temperatures
and steeper lapse rates attendant to this impulse should support a
plume of moderate to large MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg. While
deep-layer shear will be modest and generally offset west of the
greater instability/buoyancy, isolated marginally severe hail and
strong to localized severe wind gusts will be possible as scattered
thunderstorms occur this afternoon.

..Grams/Bunting.. 09/07/2022