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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CDT Wed Sep 07 2022

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models suggest that the stronger westerlies will remain
confined to the northern mid-latitudes (and generally north of the
Canadian/U.S. border) through this period.  However, flow is
forecast to trend more zonal farther south, with much of the U.S.
co*ing under the increasing influence of a modest belt of westerlies
emanating from the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the
eastern Pacific by the middle of next week.

Early in the evolution of this regime, models continue to indicate
that one significant short wave trough (initially digging to the
southeast of the northern Rockies early this co*ing weekend) will
split off the main belt of westerlies as an embedded mid-level low
evolves.  For days now, though, depiction of subsequent evolution
and eastward progression toward the Atlantic coast has been quite
varied, and large spread remains evident in the latest model output.

Despite these differences, associated surface cyclogenesis has been
forecast to remain generally weak.  Additionally, this appears
unlikely to be acco*panied by the eastward advection of a
significant plume of elevated mixed-layer air.  And cloud
cover/thermal and moisture advection trends, associated with a low
centered near the Louisiana Gulf coast at the outset of the period,
may impact destabilization as the perturbations interact near/east
of the Mississippi Valley.  It currently seems probable that all of
this will tend to marginalize the risk of severe storms across and
east of the Mississippi Valley into early next week, however severe
weather probabilities may not be co*pletely negligible.