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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 AM CDT Tue Sep 06 2022

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms is expected to be relatively low
for today.

...Synopsis...
An upper high will remain entrenched over the Great Basin for the
next 24 hours, which will maintain a broad region of anticyclonic
flow across the western two-thirds of the CONUS. East of the
Mississippi River, a weak surface low will consolidate and deepen
slightly through the morning hours across the Mid-Atlantic region as
a mean trough shifts towards the East Coast. Thunderstorm
development will be focused in the vicinity of this low and along a
diffuse front draped to the southwest into parts of the southern
Plains. Weak flow aloft will generally limit the potential for
organized convection, but a few stronger updraft pulses may be
capable of marginally severe hail and strong gusts. 

...Mid-Atlantic...
Kinematic fields across eastern Maryland, Delaware, and southern New
Jersey are expected to improve during the 12-18 UTC period as the
warm sector of the deepening surface low moves across the region.
Increasing low-level helicity in the 0-3 km layer appears to support
a brief/weak tornado threat; however, this concern is highly
conditional on the degree of daytime heating that can occur during
the morning hours. Warmer guidance suggests sufficient buoyancy will
be in place to support this concern, but poor lapse rates sampled in
00 UTC soundings and the high probability for extensive morning
clouds significantly reduce confidence in this scenario.

..Moore/Jewell.. 09/06/2022