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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong wind gusts remain possible mainly from northwest
Arizona into portions of southern California, and over parts of
central Texas.

...Southern CA into northwest AZ...
Isolated strong cells continue to move westward over the high
terrain of northern Santa Barbara and Ventura counties, and this
activity could produce strong wind gusts. The 00Z NKX sounding shows
steep lapse rates aloft, which is aiding this convection across the
uncapped elevated terrain. Otherwise, only weak levels of CAPE exist
across the deserts. The greatest chance of isolated severe gusts
appears to be with the cluster of cells moving off the mountains in
northwest AZ, with a well-mixed boundary layer and PWAT to 1.25"
downstream across the CO River. Small hail may occur as well as
deep-layer shear is near 30 kt and may aid cellular storm mode. A
gust of 65 kt was recently measured at Kingman AZ. The severe threat
is expected to end in 1-2 hours as the low levels cool.

...East-central TX...
Outflow associated with a co*plex of storms continues to push south
toward central TX, with measured gusts generally in the 30-40 kt
range over the last couple hours. While weak cooling aloft may
persist this evening beneath the upper trough, the loss of heating
should result in a weakening trend with this convection.

..Jewell.. 09/05/2022