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Mesoscale Discussion 1762
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Sat Sep 03 2022

Areas affected...Portions of northwestern AZ...southern NV...and
interior southern CA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 032038Z - 032345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms that develop this afternoon will be
capable of producing occasional severe wind gusts. Watch issuance is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures have generally reached the low to mid 100s
early this afternoon across parts of northwestern AZ, southern NV,
and interior southern CA. Even with this strong daytime heating,
surface dewpoints are generally holding in the low to mid 50s. A
very deeply mixed boundary layer, with LCLs generally above 10000 ft
and inverted-v type soundings, is present over these areas. Around
15-30 kt of mid-level easterly flow exists on the southern periphery
of a prominent upper anticyclone centered over the Great Basin.
Recent visible satellite imagery shows cu beginning to deepen over
the higher terrain. Any isolated thunderstorms that can form due
mainly to terrain-driven circulations will spread generally westward
over the next several hours. Even though instability will remain
weak, with MLCAPE mostly remaining below 1000 J/kg, substantial
amounts of DCAPE owing to the very well mixed boundary layer are
present where convection is forecast. Any of these thunderstorms
will be capable of producing occasionally strong to severe downdraft
winds around 50-70 mph. But, overall coverage of convection should
remain quite isolated owing to the lack of appreciable large-scale
ascent, and watch issuance is not anticipated at this time.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 09/03/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX...

LAT...LON   34761862 35241853 36181825 36551790 36891696 36831620
            36501366 36061304 35041230 34391285 34321386 34591477
            34591547 34181685 34191757 34361839 34761862