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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 03 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
the Desert Southwest Sunday afternoon/evening.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level ridge across the western CONUS will deamplify
somewhat tomorrow as a mid-level shortwave traverses the northern
Rockies and northern Plains. Farther east, a slow-moving upper-level
low will continue to slowly drift east through the Ohio Valley.

Thunderstorms are expected in much of the moist sector, extending
from most of Texas and the Southeast through the Ohio Valley and
into the Northeast. An even greater concentration of thunderstorms
is likely near and east of the upper-level low across the Ohio
Valley. However, wind shear will remain weak across the warm sector.
Therefore, storm organization should be minimal.

...Portions of the Desert Southwest...
Some thunderstorms will likely develop and move off the higher
terrain across portions of Northwest Arizona Sunday
afternoon/evening. Weak to moderate instability amid 30 knots of
mid-level easterly flow should provide an environment favorable for
a few strong to severe storms. The primary threat will be damaging
winds, particularly with any clusters which may develop and move
across the Colorado River Valley. 

...Northern/Central Texas...
There is some signal in convective allowing guidance for a potential
cluster/southward moving line of storms across central Texas. A cold
front will be moving south through this region which could provide
the focus for more concentrated convection, and forecast MLCAPE will
be around 2000-2500 J/kg. However, wind shear will be very weak and
therefore, organized severe convection is not anticipated.

..Bentley.. 09/03/2022