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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 03 2022

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the
Desert Southwest, the southern Great Plains, and the Mid-Mississippi
and Lower Ohio River Valleys, mainly during the late afternoon and
early evening.

...Interior Southern CA to northwest AZ...
Isolated thunderstorm development is anticipated over interior
southern CA and northwest AZ along the northern edge of a deep
moisture plume.  Although the stronger midlevel flow will reside
farther south near the international border, slightly stronger
mid-level easterly flow averaging 25 kts and steep low-level lapse
rates will result in an environment conducive for isolated
strong/severe wind gusts. 

...Northern/west-central OK to far southern KS...
Increasing frontal convergence and minimal CINH will contribute to
isolated thunderstorm development by early evening along a
slow-moving surface front.  RAP/NAM forecast soundings depict a
deep/well-mixed atmosphere and 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE by late
afternoon.  Within this environment, an isolated stronger storm will
be capable of producing strong/potentially severe gusts.  

...Mid-MS/Lower OH River Valleys...
An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected this
afternoon/early evening east of a weak midlevel trough. Despite poor
lapse rates, a very moist environment and modestly enhanced
mid-level flow (20-25 kts) may yield a few storms capable of wet
microbursts, especially where breaks in cloud cover result in
locally greater buoyancy.  Storms should diminish in intensity as
the evening progresses.

..Bunting/Gleason.. 09/03/2022