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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sat Sep 03 2022

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...

...Synopsis...
A progressive shortwave trough, evident in water-vapor imagery
moving into northern California, will usher in strong winds to the
northern Great Basin this afternoon. This will regionally bolster
the fire weather potential after several days of hot/dry weather.
Fire weather concerns are also expected to the east across the
northern High Plains as gradient winds increase through the day over
a region with dry fuels. 

...Northern Great Basin...
The jet axis associated with the northern CA shortwave trough is
expected to shift across the northern Sierra Nevada into central ID
through peak heating. The phasing of increasing 800-700 mb winds
with deep boundary-layer mixing will support 15-25 mph winds at the
surface with frequent gusts between 30-40 mph. Poor overnight RH
recovery is noted across the northern Great Basin early this
morning, and afternoon highs near 100 F are expected again this
afternoon. Consequently, diurnal RH minimums near 5-15% are likely
and will support widespread elevated to critical fire weather
conditions. Fire activity across the region, supported by recent
fuel analyses, lend further credence to the fire weather threat. 

...Northern High Plains...
Troughing in the lee of the northern Rockies will support increasing
southeasterly gradient winds across eastern MT and the western
Dakotas. Sustained winds near 15 mph, with occasional gusts to 20-25
mph, are likely. co*bined with RH reductions into the low/mid teens,
elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across a large
swath of the northern High Plains.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Advected PWAT satellite imagery shows a plume of 700-500 mb moisture
quickly advancing northward ahead of the northern CA shortwave
trough. Strong ascent ahead of the wave will help steepen lapse
rates and aid in ascent across WA into far western MT by this
afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings hint that adequate
buoyancy for convection atop a dry boundary-layer will limit
precipitation accumulations and favor isolated dry thunderstorms.
Given receptive fuel status across most of the region, a
dry-lightning fire weather concern remains likely for today.

..Moore.. 09/03/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...