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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Sat Sep 03 2022

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND WESTERN ARIZONA INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the higher
terrain of western Arizona into the lower Colorado River Valley, as
well as across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio River Valleys,
this afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
The relatively stagnant upper-level regime is expected to persist
over the next 24 hours across the CONUS with a persistent upper
ridge over the Great Basin and a weak upper trough over the Great
Lakes/lower OH River Valley region. At the surface, a cold front
will continue to push south into the Plains and Midwest, while a
weak surface low meanders into the lower OH River Valley. These
features will act as foci for thunderstorm development this
afternoon. 

...Lower Colorado River Valley...
Seasonal moisture lingers across southern AZ into the lower CO River
Valley with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s. 00 UTC soundings
from VEF and FGZ sampled steep mid-level lapse rates atop this
boundary-layer moisture. These thermodynamic conditions are expected
to persist through this evening given a modest monsoonal moisture
plume from northern Mexico. Thunderstorm development off the
Mongollon Rim is expected by mid/late afternoon. Strong westerly
flow in the 700-500 mb layer on the southern periphery of the upper
ridge will support the potential for some storm organization. Steep
low-level lapse rates will foster strong to severe downbursts winds.
Despite the favorable environment, weak forcing for ascent will
likely yield limited storm coverage and favor an isolated severe
wind/hail threat.

...Mid-MS/Lower OH River Valleys...
A weak upper low is apparent in early-morning water-vapor imagery
over northern AR/southern MO. This feature is expected to meander
into the lower OH River Valley through the afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorm development is likely ahead of this feature and along a
weak surface warm front. Despite modest lapse rates sampled in 00
UTC RAOBs, rich boundary-layer moisture will support MLCAPE values
near 2000 J/kg across the region. Slightly enhanced flow ahead of
the upper disturbance may support sufficient hodograph elongation
for a few organized cells capable of strong to severe winds and
perhaps severe hail.

...Southern Plains to Central New Mexico...
Thunderstorm development is expected over northwest OK along the
surface cold front amid diurnally increasing buoyancy and negligible
inhibition. Weak deep-layer flow over the region will limit the
potential for storm organization, but moderate MLCAPE (near 2000
J/kg) and steepening low-level lapse rates will support the
potential for a few stronger gusts and perhaps marginally severe
hail. To the west, high-based thunderstorms moving off the terrain
of southern CO will migrate into a deeply mixed environment
supportive of dry downbursts. While the potential for a
strong/severe gust or two is noted, weak forcing for ascent across
both regions casts uncertainty into storm coverage and the overall
severe threat.

..Moore/Smith.. 09/03/2022