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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CDT Fri Sep 02 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
The westerlies appear likely to remain strongest and most
progressive across the northern mid-latitude Pacific into western
Canada through this period.  A couple of perturbations within the
leading edge of larger-scale mid-level troughing appear likely
migrate inland of the British Columbia coast, while larger-scale
downstream ridging and troughing more slowly begin to shift east of
the Canadian Prairies and into the Labrador Sea, respectively.

The leading edge of cooler air associated with the eastern Canadian
mid-level troughing may continue to slowly advance south of the St.
Lawrence Valley and lower Great Lakes region, while the remnants of
a more modest preceding intrusion of cooler/drier air only gradually
begin to lose influence on the Mid Atlantic Coast vicinity.

Otherwise, seasonably moist conditions appear likely to be
maintained across much of the Gulf Coast states into the middle
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and east-northeastward along/ahead of
the surface front through portions of New England.  Highest moisture
content will be focused south and east of an elongated cyclonic
circulation centered near or northeast of the Ozark Plateau, along a
persistent weak positively-tilted mid-level trough axis, between
prominent mid-level ridging centered over the Great Basin and off
the south Atlantic coast.

Where conditions remain moist, daytime heating probably will
contribute to sufficient destabilization to support the development
of scattered to numerous thunderstorms, mostly during the afternoon
into early evening.  However, in the presence of generally weak
deep-layer mean flow and shear, environmental profiles largely
characterized by modest to weak lapse rates and CAPE still seem
likely to result in minimal severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 09/03/2022