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Mesoscale Discussion 1759
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Fri Sep 02 2022

Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota...northern Wisconsin...and the
western Upper Peninsula of Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 022158Z - 030000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorm development appears probable
through the evening hours from southeast Minnesota to the western
Upper Peninsula of Michigan. A few strong to severe storms are
possible; however, weak flow aloft will modulate the overall severe
threat. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm initiation is underway across the western
U.P. of MI as a cold front pushes to the southeast. Latest visible
trends show a growing cumulus field along the front extending to the
Twin Cities region. A few deepening towers within this field hint
that additional thunderstorm development is probable in the next
couple of hours. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the
upper 60s and low 70s) and modest lapse rates aloft are supporting
1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE along the front, which is favorable for a few
intense cells. A weak flow co*ponent off the cold front suggests a
mix of discrete cells and clusters is likely, and modest effective
bulk shear values near 25 knots may allow for a few strong/severe
storms, but will limit the overall severe threat. The potential for
strong to severe winds may be locally higher across portions of
northern WI and the western U.P. where 30-40 knot low-level flow is
sampled by the KMQT VWP, but otherwise a sporadic wind/hail threat
is expected along the rest of the front.

..Moore/Hart.. 09/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   44159438 45299275 46539016 47338846 47178777 46748715
            46228726 45628783 44868920 43949096 43649215 43589320
            43649397 43809459 44159438