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Mesoscale Discussion 1758
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0430 PM CDT Fri Sep 02 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado to northwest Kansas and southwest
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 022130Z - 022330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may pose a severe
hail/wind threat through the evening hours. However, this threat
will likely remain too limited to warrant a watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Robust convection is quickly maturing across parts of
southwest NE as thunderstorms develop along a diffuse cold front and
in the vicinity of a weak surface low. This activity is developing
on the periphery of higher quality boundary-layer moisture and
colder temperatures aloft (both to the east across central/eastern
NE), but is within a supportive thermodynamic environment for strong
convection (MLCAPE values estimated near 1000 J/kg). 30-40 knot
northerly flow aloft is largely orthogonal to the initiating
boundary and is supporting sufficiently elongated hodographs to
support discrete cells, including the potential for a supercell or
two. Moderately steep lapse rates aloft near 8-8.5 C/km coupled with
the favorable shear will support a large hail threat in addition to
the potential for strong/severe winds. 

To the west across eastern CO, high-based convection has developed
along the front within a relatively dry air mass with marginal
buoyancy. However, steep low-level lapse rates (near 9-10 C/km) and
modest northerly flow aloft will support the potential for a few
strong to severe downbursts this evening. The overall severe threat
across both regions is expected to be relatively confined given
increasing inhibition to the south/east into KS/NE and meager flow
with westward extent into CO. Watch issuance is not expected.

..Moore/Hart.. 09/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38860052 38590132 38370228 38420330 38880386 39520386
            39920371 39950275 40310182 40770070 41019987 40939936
            40549890 40159884 39539934 39140005 38860052