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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Sep 02 2022

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and
evening over parts of central/southern Arizona and the Lower
Colorado River Valley, and from the central Great Plains to the
Upper Great Lakes.

...Arizona/Lower Colorado Valley...
Visible satellite shows relatively cloud-free skies, which will be
conducive for ample insolation/heating coincident with a relatively
moist air mass, with prevalent 60s F surface dewpoints in the lower
elevations of southern Arizona and middle 50s F dewpoints along the
Mogollon Rim as of late morning. An increase in storm coverage as
co*pared to yesterday seems probable.

Easterly mid-level/steering winds are and will remain notably strong
as the upper high builds to the north over the Great Basin/central
Rockies. Upwards of 25-30 kt mid-level winds are plausible across
the southern half of Arizona, which would be conducive for storm
organization/upscale growth and propagation onto the lower
elevations/desert floor and Lower Colorado River Valley. Initial
discrete development over the higher terrain/near the Rim will pose
a risk for localized severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail.
However, a more organized/substantial wind threat may emerge with
upscale-growing/MCS development by evening.

...Central Plains to Upper Great Lakes...
The primary shortwave trough over northeast Manitoba will shift east
across southern Hudson Bay/far northern Ontario, with the trailing
part of this trough moving across the Upper Great Lakes. A weak
mid-level trough will meander east across the Ozarks. In between
these features, deep-layer shear will be enhanced across the central
Great Plains owing to 25-35 kt mid-level north-northwesterly winds.
Weaker deep-layer shear is anticipated with northeast extent along a
cold front pushing southeastward across the Upper Midwest.

A greater potential for scattered thunderstorms along the front
should exist in the southeast Minnesota/northern Wisconsin/Upper
Michigan vicinity given more pronounced low-level convergence and
trailing influence of the Ontario trough. Multicell clusters mainly
producing isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail
will be the primary threats.

A more isolated thunderstorm coverage is anticipated into southeast
Nebraska and northern Kansas, but given the greater vertical shear
and nearly perpendicular orientation of mid-level flow with respect
to the front, a few transient supercells embedded within a cluster
or two may develop. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible,
with increasing MLCIN after dusk being detrimental for sustaining
severe potential later into the evening.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 09/02/2022