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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CDT Fri Sep 02 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Little change to the general large-scale pattern is expected through
this period.  Models indicate that a modestly amplified branch of
westerlies will remain largely confined to the northern mid-latitude
Pacific into Canada.  Within this regime, large-scale mid-level
troughing may begin to slowly develop inland of the British
Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast, with downstream ridging and
troughing beginning to shift east of the Canadian Prairies and into
the Labrador Sea, respectively.

A cold front associated with the lead mid-level trough is forecast
to advance southeast/south of the St. Lawrence Valley and lower
Great Lakes region into/through southern New England, the northern
Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley by late Sunday night.  This may beco*e
a focus for at least scattered thunderstorm activity Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening, aided by seasonably moist pre-frontal
conditions.  However, generally weak lapse rates probably will only
allow for the development of relatively modest CAPE (1000-1500 K/kg)
by peak heating.  In the presence of rather modest deep-layer
westerly mean flow on the order of 10-20 kt, the risk for storms
capable of generating damaging wind gusts still appears negligible
at this point.

..Kerr.. 09/02/2022