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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Fri Sep 02 2022

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...Synopsis...
A co*pact shortwave trough across the western US will continue
inland Saturday as the prominent mid-level ridge is shifted east
across the northern Rockies. Strong mid-level flow will overspread
the Great Basin and Northwest supporting dry and windy conditions
Saturday afternoon. Along with the risk for gusty winds, isolated
thunderstorms may produce dry lightning within receptive fuels
across portions of the interior Northwest through Saturday night. 

...Northern Great Basin and northern Rockies...
As the aforementioned shortwave trough continues inland Saturday, a
belt of enhanced mid-level flow will overspread the Great Basin and
northern Rockies. Dry westerly flow off the Sierra will support low
humidity across portions of northern NV into southwestern ID.
Afternoon RH values of 15-20% and winds of 15-20 mph will favor
elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions within dry
fuels. The highest likelihood of locally critical conditions appears
to be across portions of the northern Great Basin and southern ID
where 15-25 mph gusts and RH near 15% are possible. Critical
highlights may beco*e necessary if greater model consistency in
sustained 25 mph winds develops. 

Farther north across the northern Rockies, certainty on afternoon RH
values decrease closer to the center of the mid-level trough. Here,
dynamic lift and mid-level moisture will support greater cloud cover
that may inhibit diurnal heating. While RH will be more marginal,
the gusty winds and dry local fuels should still favor a risk for
elevated fire weather concerns through the afternoon. 

...Northern Plains...
As dynamic lift from the approaching trough overspreads the northern
Rockies, a weak lee trough/low is expected to bolster low-level
southerly flow across portions of the northern Plains. Enhanced by
the weak trough/low 15-20 mph gusts should develop along with RH
values below 25%, mainly across portions of the western Dakotas and
eastern MT. Area fuels remain dry enough that at least a few hours
of elevated fire weather conditions are possible despite more
marginal humidity. Fire concerns should lessen near sunset as
diurnal winds begin to weaken.

...Northwest Thunder...
Beneath the cold core of the upper trough, steep lapse rates and
increasing mid-level moisture should support marginal buoyancy for
isolated thunderstorms across portions of central and eastern WA
Saturday afternoon/evening. Model soundings show dry low levels
beneath the marginal buoyancy, suggesting little potential for
wetting rains should storms develop. Some uncertainty on storm
coverage still exists with the latest hi-res guidance. However, the
chance for isolated lightning (nearly all dry) over receptive fuels
warrants the inclusion of isolated dry thunder probabilities.

..Lyons.. 09/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...