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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES....WESTERN KANSAS...CENTRAL NEBRASKA...EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of the
Great Plains into Upper Midwest Friday through Friday night. 
Isolated tornadoes are possible, but strong wind gusts and large
hail appear the primary severe weather threats.

...Synopsis...
Latest model output is generally not that much different from prior
runs.  Large-scale mid/upper troughing, with several embedded short
waves, appears likely to continue developing inland of the Pacific
coast during this period.  Strongest associated mid-level height
falls are forecast to shift east-northeast of the lower Colorado
Valley early Friday, through the southern Rockies by early Friday
evening and into the central Great Plains by late Friday night. 
This likely will be acco*panied by strong surface cyclogenesis from
the lee of the Front Range north-northeastward through central South
Dakota by late Friday night.

This will be preceded by a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air
advecting through much of the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. 
However, it still appears that low-level Gulf moisture return may
gradually begin to beco*e disrupted by mid/lower tropospheric
drying, associated with low-level ridging building westward toward
the northwestern Gulf coast and southeastern Great Plains, beneath a
prominent mid-level high centered over the Southeast.

While the mid-level ridge axis initially extending to the
north-northwest of this high may gradually pivot across and east of
the Mississippi Valley, the western flank of the broad amplified
ridging may not shift east of the lower Great Plains until late
Friday evening.

...Great Plains into Upper Midwest...
Drying from the Southeast, coupled with daytime heating and mixing,
may confine higher boundary-layer moisture to narrow corridors along
and to the cool side of the developing warm frontal zone,
near/northeast of the mid/lower Missouri Valley by late afternoon,
and near the deepening surface trough across the high plains.  The
north-northeastward advecting plume of elevated mixed-layer air will
tend to overspread the warm front and contribute to increasing
mid-level inhibition, but this may be preceded by lower/mid
tropospheric warm advection driven storms which could pose a risk
for severe hail northeast of the Missouri Valley toward the Upper
Midwest during the day.  

Thereafter, it appears that the sharpening dryline may beco*e the
focus for the initiation of scattered strong to severe storms by
late afternoon.  However, more widespread thunderstorm development
seems more likely Friday evening, coinciding with southerly
low-level jet intensification (including 50-70 kt around 850 mb),
and increasing forcing for ascent associated with the approaching
mid-level trough.  

It remains unclear whether this will most prominently include the
upscale growth of the initial dryline storms, or redevelopment of
storms along an eastward advancing cold front as it overtakes the
dryline across the high plains.  Regardless, strong convective gusts
appears likely to beco*e the most prominent and more widespread
severe hazard across much of the central high plains by Friday
evening.  It is also possible that the warm frontal zone, near the
strengthening low-level jet axis, could beco*e a focus for a
clustering of supercells posing a risk for large hail as it noses
northward across eastern South Dakota.  This activity could also
pose a risk for tornadoes initially, but the tornado threat, in
general, remains unclear at this time.

..Kerr.. 04/21/2022