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Mesoscale Discussion 1756
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

Areas affected...Far eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas and
southwest Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 312146Z - 312345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms will continue to pose a
risk of strong to severe wind over the next several hours. However,
confidence in the duration and coverage of this threat remains
limited; watch issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Latest imagery from KGLD shows a broken line of
thunderstorms gradually propagating to the southeast into parts of
far eastern CO, northwest KS, and far southwest NE. Portions of this
line are beco*ing outflow dominant, but a few segments have
maintained a balanced UDCZ with new updraft development noted in IR
imagery over the past 30 minutes. It remains somewhat unclear how
organized this line will remain over the next couple of hours, but
the downstream environment remains supportive of convective
maintenance with 500-1000 J/kg and nearly 30 knots of line-normal
effective bulk shear. Furthermore, low-level lapse rates ahead of
the line remain very steep (near 9 C/km), which is supportive of a
strong wind potential. Consequently, the potential for strong to
severe winds will likely continue ahead of this line into the
evening hours if a balanced UDCZ can be maintained and/or
re-established along the existing outflow boundary. However, a watch
issuance is not expected given the uncertainty in the convective
evolution.

..Moore/Hart.. 08/31/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   39240287 39610213 40130152 40520100 40990049 40959973
            40589943 40169936 39599939 39089979 38580058 38430157
            38500229 38730279 38880290 39240287