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Mesoscale Discussion 1755
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

Areas affected...East/Downeast ME

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 311933Z - 312130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorm wind gusts are possible this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A co*pact vorticity maximum continues to move eastward
across northern New England, with the broader upper trough extended
across eastern Canada. Leading edge of ascent associated with this
vorticity maximum is fostering convection in a north-south line
across central ME. This line is moving eastward at 20-25 kt, while
individual cells within the line track more northeasterly. Buoyancy
downstream across east and Downeast ME is modest, with mesoanalysis
estimating MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg. This limited buoyancy should
temper updraft strength and keep the overall severe threat low. Even
so, strong kinematic fields, particularly above 700 mb, could still
help organize any deeper, more persistent updrafts, contributing to
the low potential for a strong gust or two.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 08/31/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   45306942 46786871 47316828 46746782 45156781 44426847
            44046987 45306942