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Mesoscale Discussion 1754
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

Areas affected...Lake Ontario to the Adirondacks

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 311916Z - 312115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible from northern
Lake Ontario eastward into the Adirondacks this afternoon and
evening.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a line of showers and
thunderstorms moving across far eastern Ontario at 20-25 kt. At that
speed, the line should reach the lower St. Lawrence River Valley by
around 1930Z and the lee of Lake Ontario around 2030-2100Z. The
downstream airmass is moderately warm and moist, with recent surface
observations reporting temperatures in the low 70s and dewpoints in
the low/mid 50s. These low-level conditions are ongoing beneath
relatively cool mid-level temperatures associated with an upper
trough, with recent mesoanalysis estimated 500 mb temperatures
around -17 to -18 deg C. As a result, modest buoyancy exists from
the northern lee of Lake Ontario eastward into the Adirondacks.
Strong daytime heating has occurred here as well, resulting in steep
low-level lapse rates.

These thermodynamic conditions are expected to support continued
thunderstorms as the ongoing line progresses eastward. This line,
which is on the leading edge of a co*pact shortwave trough, is also
acco*panied by moderate mid-level flow. The co*bination of these
thermodynamic and kinematic conditions may result in isolated strong
wind gusts within the stronger cells in the line. Sporadic/isolated
nature of the threat will preclude the need for a watch.

..Mosier.. 08/31/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   44727556 44967501 44987425 44747397 44307408 43507465
            43047555 42957635 43137717 43587640 43887621 44147627
            44727556