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Mesoscale Discussion 0525
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022

Areas affected...Ozark Plateau and Vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 210423Z - 210630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible with thunderstorms across
the Ozark Plateau region tonight.

DISCUSSION...Despite the passage of a mid-level short-wave trough,
low-level warm advection appears to be the primary instigator in
aiding recent convection across the Ozark Plateau region, especially
over southwest MO. LLJ remains focused a bit downstream of this area
but adequate southwesterly flow atop the boundary layer appears to
be feeding this activity from a capped, but more moist/buoyant air
mass just upstream over northeast OK. With time, surface warm front
should reposition to near the MO/AR border and this may reinforce a
west-northwest/east-southeast corridor of favorable ascent for
scattered elevated convection through sunrise. 00z sounding from SGF
exhibited steep mid-level lapse rates but with significant capping
at 700mb. However, some cooling near 700mb has likely eroded this
cap, as evident by recent convection. Forecast soundings suggest
most buoyant parcels will be lifted near 850mb and could yield
MUCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg. With adequate cloud-layer shear a few
supercells could emerge along with some hail potential, possibly
exceeding 1 inch at times. Even so, at this time a watch does not
appear warranted but will continue to monitor for more significant
development.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 04/21/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36999459 36939269 36419176 35969244 36349480 36999459