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Mesoscale Discussion 1752
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022

Areas affected...Southeast Pennsylvania into eastern Maryland...New
Jersey...and northern Delaware

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 302150Z - 302345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A line of storms moving across southeast Pennsylvania and
eastern Maryland into northern Delaware and New Jersey may produce
sporadic damaging winds through the evening hours. A watch is not
expected given the limited nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION...Latest reflectivity and GOES IR trends have shown an
intensification of a convective line across parts of southeast
PA/eastern MD over the past 30-60 minutes. Coincidentally, several
ASOS/AWOS stations have reported wind gusts between 30-35 knots with
the passage of this line. While deep-layer flow over the region is
very modest, some veering in the lowest 3 km is likely supporting
weak linear organization. Furthermore, the downstream environment
into northern DE and NJ remains unstable with around 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE, which should support line maintenance. Low-level lapse rates
ahead of the line are also rather steep (near 9 C/km), and may
foster a few stronger gusts. Sporadic damaging winds appear possible
with this line through the evening hours until the system reaches
the coast. However, this threat remains too limited to necessitate a
watch issuance.

..Moore/Grams.. 08/30/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40547613 41017575 40967520 40867448 40637421 40177412
            39417434 38917509 38867570 39057620 39577643 39947629
            40547613