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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

[html]SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
         
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

Added an Elevated area for portions of the eastern Columbia River
Gorge into the Columbia basin. Winds in excess of 20 mph are likely,
but relative humidity may be somewhat higher due to the marine flow
through the Gorge. Winds will be less strong further into the
Columbia basin, but relative humidity will be much lower. Therefore,
elevated fire weather concerns are expected.

In addition, made some slight modifications to the ongoing IsoDryT
area based on the latest forecast guidance. However, the threat
remains on track for a few storms to develop late tomorrow into
tomorrow night as a shortwave moves through the area.

..Bentley.. 08/30/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022/

...Synopsis...
Regional fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the
Pacific Northwest for Wednesday afternoon. A weak upper-level
disturbance, currently noted in water-vapor imagery off the West
Coast, is forecast to advance northward into the Pacific Northwest
through the day Wednesday. Increasing zonal winds over the northern
Sierra Nevada and Cascades will increase downslope flow and gap
winds during the afternoon hours. Ensemble guidance shows reasonably
strong probability for 15-20 mph winds across far northeast
CA/northwest NV into southern OR. Given antecedent warm/dry
conditions and receptive fuels, this will likely coincide with
afternoon RH minimums in the low to mid teens to support elevated
fire weather conditions. Elevated conditions are also possible
through the Columbia Gorge, but may be more localized in nature.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
A modest influx of mid-level moisture co*bined with weak ascent
ahead of the upper disturbance should be sufficient for isolated
thunderstorms across central to northern WA and northern ID
Wednesday afternoon. Forecast soundings show favorable thermodynamic
profiles for weak convection, with cloud bases between 3-4 km AGL
and boundary-layer mean RH as low as 15%. Hi-res ensembles support
this idea with a modest convective signal in a region of reduced
PWAT values near 0.75 in., further hinting at the potential for dry
lightning. Given the dry fuels across the region and recent fire
activity, lightning-driven highlights are introduced.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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Source: SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html)