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Mesoscale Discussion 1751
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022

Areas affected...VA..MD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 301755Z - 302000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations reveal temperatures have climbed
into the low 90s amid low 70s dewpoints across much of MD and VA.
This heating has helped erode convective inhibition across the
region ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant
surface trough. Thunderstorms have developed along the leading edge
of the large-scale forcing for ascent (as evidenced by the
relatively sharp gradient in cloud cover). Given the downstream
destabilization, the ongoing storms are expected to persist eastward
into more of VA and MD. Even so, relatively warm thermodynamic
profiles will temper instability, likely keeping storms near their
current intensity. Primary risk with any of these storms is expected
to be damaging wind gusts associated with water-loaded downbursts.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 08/30/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   37308053 39537840 39567631 38847597 37907669 36687858
            36628063 37308053