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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms may produce pockets
of wind damage mainly during afternoon and early evening across
parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic...
A mid- to upper-level trough initially over the western Great Lakes
will move eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast during the
period.  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be
ongoing this morning over the upper OH Valley near a cold front
pushing east.  A seasonably moist airmass featuring mid-upper 60s to
lower 70s dewpoints, will destabilize during the morning into the
afternoon despite the presence of scattered to broken cloud cover. 
As a result, only marginal buoyancy is expected given relatively
modest mid-level lapse rates (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE).  Consistent
with previous forecast thinking, it seems the stronger mid- to upper
tropospheric flow will lag and largely be west of the warm sector. 
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely develop during the
late morning into the mid afternoon as several extensive bands of
convection move east across the Mid-Atlantic states northward into
NY and western New England.  Given the modest lapse rates and low to
mid tropospheric flow, isolated gusts 45-60 mph (damaging gusts) are
expected with the more intense embedded cells within the convective
bands and outflow surges.  This activity will likely weaken during
the early evening as instability lessens and activity moves towards
the coast.

..Smith/Moore.. 08/30/2022