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Mesoscale Discussion 0524
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern OK into far
southeastern KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 202046Z - 202315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...If isolated thunderstorms can develop this afternoon, they
would pose a threat for very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps
a tornado. Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...20Z surface analysis shows a 1000 mb low centered just
south of Wichita KS in far south-central KS. A dryline extends
southward from this low across central OK and into north-central TX.
Recent visible satellite imagery indicates some attempts at
deeper/towering cu over south-central OK, with additional
development across north-central OK into far southern KS. Surface
temperatures have beco*e quite hot along/behind the dryline, with
many areas in western/central OK showing mid 80s to mid 90s. A
narrow corridor of diurnal heating has occurred so far this
afternoon just ahead of the dryline in central/eastern OK as a low
stratus deck continues to slowly erode. Surface temperatures in the
70s to mid 80s have beco*e co*mon across this area. Steep mid-level
lapse rates present on the 12Z OUN sounding are still present over
the warm sector, and latest mesoanalysis estimates that MLCAPE
around 1500-2500 J/kg has developed along/ahead of the dryline.

40-50 kt of westerly mid-level flow associated with a low-amplitude
shortwave trough remains over much of the southern Plains. Similar
values of effective bulk shear will easily support supercells, if
they develop. Greater than usual uncertainty continues regarding
whether any thunderstorms will initiate along the dryline over the
next few hours, as large-scale forcing remains fairly weak.
Regardless, if an isolated thunderstorm or two can develop, it would
likely beco*e supercellular and pose a threat for very large hail
(2+ inch diameter) and damaging winds. Although low-level flow has
veered in the vicinity of the dryline in central OK, it remains
modestly enhanced over eastern OK and vicinity. If any convection
that may develop this afternoon can persist with eastward extent
into the early evening, then it could pose a threat for an isolated
tornado. Observational trends will continue to be closely monitored
for possible watch issuance over the next few hours.

..Gleason/Hart.. 04/20/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   34939716 36359686 37049682 37219668 37319636 37369594
            37349555 37269527 37149502 36949480 36509485 35719515
            35159538 34069601 34029696 34099756 34939716