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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
The greatest severe-weather threat for today and this evening
appears to be over portions of central/eastern Oklahoma into the
western Ozarks region, where up to a few supercells with hail,
isolated severe gusts and a tornado are possible.

...20z update Central/Southern Plains...

Considerable uncertainty still remains on the potential for discrete
convective initiation along the dryline across portions of
central/eastern OK into southeastern KS this afternoon/evening.
Regional water vapor imagery shows a well-defined, co*pact vort max
moving across the southern Plains. Lift from this feature along with
strong heating along the dryline may support a few supercells late
this afternoon into this evening. 

Deeper mixing has allowed the dryline to move slightly farther
eastward than depicted by most morning hi-res guidance. Visible
imagery trends and veering surface flow around the OKC metro suggest
the greater severe threat may develop across eastern OK. Area
RAP/HRRR soundings continue to show a favorable environment for
supercells, particularly along the triple point/warm front
stretching from far southeastern KS to eastern OK. Mid-level lapse
rates of 7-8 C/km and large hodographs will support a risk for large
to very large hail with any supercells able to beco*e established.
Backed surface flow sheltered from stronger mixing beneath the
lingering stratus deck slowly eroding across eastern OK may also
support low-level mesocyclones capable of a tornado or two with the
more dominant storms should they develop this evening. 

Th previous forecast remains valid with no changes for portions of
the Pacific Northwest.

..Lyons/Mosier.. 04/20/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022/

...Eastern OK and Vicinity...
Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving into western KS.
Ahead of this trough, strong heating is occurring west of the
surface dryline over OK, helping to mix it eastward.  By mid/late
afternoon, the dryline will extend from a low in southeast KS into
east-central OK, with a very moist/unstable air mass present in the
warm sector.  A capping inversion is also evident in forecast
soundings and in the numerous wave clouds present in visible
satellite imagery.

The confidence/coverage of convective initiation remains the main
forecast problem today.  12z model guidance continues to show a
diversity of solutions, ranging from several storms along the
dryline from southeast KS into southern OK, to virtually no storms.
Forecast soundings along the dryline show considerable low-level and
deep-layer shear that would be favorable for discrete supercell
development capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a
tornado or two.  Soundings also show a persistent but weak cap. 
Therefore, will maintain the ongoing MRGL/SLGT areas with no
changes.  However, will add a 5% tornado risk area given the
conditional risk if a storm or two can form.  The primary risk
should be in the 22-03z window, before diurnal cooling strengthens
inhibition again.

...Western OR...
A shortwave trough off the coast of southwest OR will rotate
northeastward later today and affect the Cascades and coastal areas.
12z CAM solutions suggest a rather co*pact system with a focused
low-level jet tracking northward across the region late this
afternoon and evening. Enhanced low-level shear/forcing may be
sufficient for a few rotating showers or thunderstorms capable of
gusty winds or a brief tornado spin-up.  Instability will be quite
weak, and it is uncertain whether updrafts will be strong enough to
take advantage of the low-level wind fields.