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Mesoscale Discussion 1741
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Areas affected...Northern OK...Far Southeast KS...Far Southwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 291708Z - 291915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of isolated
damaging wind gusts and/or hail are expected this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A very moist air mass is in place over the region, with
recent surface observations sampling dewpoints in the low 70s and
recent mesoanalysis estimated precipitable water around 1.9" to
2.0". Thermodynamic profiles are relatively warm, but these moist
conditions amid surface temperatures already in the upper 80s to low
90s still result in moderate buoyancy. Recent mesoanalysis estimates
MLCAPE is around 2000-2500 J/kg across the region.

Large-scale forcing for ascent is nebulous, with much of it focused
well north of the region. Even so, low-level convergence along the
numerous outflow boundaries has already promoted a few storms, and
that trend is expected to continue this afternoon. A few updrafts
may be strong enough to produce hail, but the primary severe risk
will be damaging wind gusts associated with wet downbursts.
Sporadic/isolated nature of the severe risk is expected to preclude
the need for a watch.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 08/29/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36199946 36799783 37529529 37449398 36269452 35229826
            36199946