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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur late Sunday
afternoon and evening across parts of the northern/central Plains
and Upper Midwest. Severe/damaging wind gusts and large hail should
be the main threats, but a tornado or two also appear possible.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A well-defined shortwave trough will advance eastward across the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Sunday. A 40-50 kt
west-southwesterly jet will acco*pany this feature and overspread
parts of the Upper Midwest through Sunday evening. The primary
surface low should remain in central Canada, with a secondary low
forecast to shift eastward across SD and western MN through the day.
A cold front will sweep eastward across the Upper Midwest through
the period. This front will serve as a focus for lift and related
severe convective potential.

A seasonably moist low-level airmass will likely be in place ahead
of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 60s to low
70s. Diurnal heating of this airmass, along with the presence of
steep mid-level lapse rates, should encourage the development of
moderate to strong instability ahead of the front across MN/IA and
eastern NE. The strongest instability should be present across
southern/central MN and vicinity where better daytime heating is
forecast. A low-level cap should inhibit convective development
through much of the afternoon. But, robust thunderstorms should
eventually initiate along/near the eastward-sweeping cold front
across western/central MN by late Sunday afternoon. 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear will support updraft organization, with a mix of
supercells and multicells possible initially. Both large hail and
severe/damaging wind gusts may occur with this activity. A fairly
quick transition to one or more bowing clusters should occur late
Sunday afternoon/evening into eastern MN and western WI, with the
wind threat beco*ing the primary severe concern. A tornado or two
also appear possible through the early evening, as 0-1 km SRH
appears sufficient for some low-level rotation with both cells and
embedded QLCS circulations.

The severe threat ahead of cold front appears a bit more uncertain
and conditional with southward extent into IA and eastern NE. The
better large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough will
remain mostly to the north of these areas. Still, any thunderstorms
that can form across this region Sunday afternoon/evening could
beco*e severe, with both an isolated large hail and damaging wind
threat. Given the continued uncertainty with overall thunderstorm
coverage across these areas, have opted to just expand the Marginal
Risk for now, and keep greater severe probabilities focused in MN
and western WI where convective coverage appears greater.

..Gleason.. 08/27/2022