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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Tue - Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes Vicinity...

A mid/upper trough will develop eastward from the upper Great Lakes
to the Northeast on Tuesday. This will bring a belt of enhanced
west/southwesterly flow over the region. At the surface, a cold
front is forecast to shift east/southeast from the Mid-MS
Valley/Lower MI to the OH Valley/western NY by late Tuesday
afternoon/early evening. Ahead of the front, at least modest
destabilization is expected with a moist airmass in place. However,
uncertainty exists regarding severe potential, as most guidance
develops periods of rain across the area in strong warm advection
ahead of the cold front. If pockets of stronger heating can occur,
some potential for damaging gusts and hail could acco*pany
thunderstorms ahead of the cold front from late afternoon into the
evening hours. Additional uncertainty exists in the timing of the
cold front, with some guidance more quickly progressing the front
eastward. These uncertainties will preclude severe probabilities at
this time. 

...Elsewhere...

An upper trough will persist over the Northeast through at least Day
6/Thu while an upper anticyclone develops over the Great Basin.
Deep-layer flow will remain weak over much of the CONUS, while the
surface cold front moves offshore the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
coast on Day 5/Wed. Building surface high pressure over the Midwest
will allow the southern/western portions of the cold front to sag
southward across parts of the southern Plains and southeastern
states through Day 6 or 7/Thu or Fri. However, little large-scale
ascent, and weak vertical shear will limit severe potential. Overall
severe potential appears low across most of the CONUS beyond Day
4/Tue.