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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the
evening across the portions of the southern/central Plains into the
Upper Midwest, and in southern and eastern Montana.  Isolated severe
gusts and large hail are the main threats.

...Southern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A minor mid-level trough should advance east-northeastward
across the central Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest through
this evening.  A plume of relatively rich low-level moisture will
extend from KS northeast into MN/WI.  A weak front/surface
trough across the Plains likely serve as the western extent of any
appreciable severe risk.

Uncertainty remains regarding thunderstorm placement due to the
weakly forced regime.  This uncertainty is continuing to be
displayed in the variability of storms in recent CAM models. 
Nonetheless, it seems the greatest thunderstorm coverage will be
located from the TX Panhandle into central KS and in one or more
clusters in the IA/MN/western WI vicinity during the afternoon
through the evening.  Steep lapse rates over the central/southern
Plains will favor isolated severe gusts/large hail with the most
intense storms.  Farther northeast, strong effective shear will
promote greater storm organization potential.  Isolated large
hail/damaging gusts are possible.  If a storm can intensify along
the advancing warm front over central MN into western WI, low-level
rotation could occur with one or two of these storms.  A gradual
waning in storm coverage/intensity is expected by mid evening as
instability decreases.

...Montana...
A vigorous mid-level trough will move from southern BC and WA
east-southeast into northern MT by early evening.  Heating during
the day coupled with very steep mid-level lapse rates in the
presence of scant moisture, will lead to inverted-v profiles by late
afternoon.  Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast
to develop near a cold front and these high-based storms will be
relatively low-topped given the meager buoyancy.  Increasing flow in
the top of the boundary layer coupled with evaporative-cooling
potential will probably yield an isolated risk for severe gusts with
the more pronounced thunderstorm cores.

..Smith/Squitieri.. 08/27/2022