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Mesoscale Discussion 1724
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0433 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022

Areas affected...portions of southeast Montana into eastern Wyoming
and far western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 262133Z - 262300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail/wind may acco*pany the
stronger storms into the evening hours. Damaging gusts would beco*e
the primary concerns with any storm clusters than can merge into
co*plexes. Still, the severe threat is expected to remain relatively
isolated and a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Several discrete/semi-discrete storms (some showing
multicell and transient supercell structures) have matured over the
past couple of hours across the northern High Plains given maximum
diurnal heating and the approach of a 500 mb vort max across
northern MT. These storms continue to move east towards an
increasingly moist airmass. Latest surface obs along the WY/SD
border show surface dewpoints rising into the 50s F, overspread by 8
C/km tropospheric lapse rates (per 21Z mesoanalysis), contributing
to well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. In addition, low-level winds are more
backed ahead of the ongoing storms along the WY/SD border,
contributing to slightly curved low-level hodographs, followed by
hodograph elongation with height. As such, deep-layer shear beco*es
stronger (effective bulk shear exceeding 40 kts), favoring a severe
hail threat with the more discrete, sustained storms. However, a
relatively dry boundary layer is also in place, so any storms/cold
pools that merge may also support a severe gust threat. 

Nonetheless, MLCINH increases farther into the Plains states, so the
severe threat may be confined to a narrow corridor, and should also
weaken after sunset. As such, the severe threat should be relatively
isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 08/26/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   42550601 44300642 45060631 45510561 45690484 45570395
            45240342 44870319 44300313 43690337 43230379 42870428
            42650482 42550601