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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO...

The Elevated area has been expanded across a larger area of eastern
ID into southwest MT. While minimum RH may generally stay above the
critical threshold in these areas (generally 20-25%), sustained
winds greater than 20 mph (with higher gusts) will support elevated
to locally critical conditions, and potentially exacerbate ongoing
fires across the region. 

Otherwise, no changes have been made to the Elevated and Critical
areas. Guidance has trended weaker with wind speeds over northwest
NV, and it is possible that the Critical area may eventually be
removed over portions of that area, if upco*ing guidance continues
that trend. Critical wind/RH still appears likely from northeast NV
into parts of southern ID. See the previous discussion below for
more information.

..Dean.. 08/26/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is noted in morning water-vapor imagery over
the northeast Pacific. This feature is expected to gradually shift
southeast over the next 48 hours, moving into the Pacific Northwest
by Saturday afternoon. This will promote thunderstorm chances along
and east of the northern Rockies, as well as bolster low to
mid-level flow and fire weather concerns for the northern Great
Basin.

...Northern Great Basin...
Westerly mid-level winds will increase over the northern Great Basin
in response to the upper wave and ahead of an approaching cold
front. This will support strengthening downslope flow off the
northern Sierra Nevada into the northern Great Basin, as well as
strong winds through the upper Snake River Plain. Fuels across much
of this region are already dry after multiple days of afternoon RH
values in the teens/low 20s. Limited moisture return will maintain
antecedent dry conditions with RH minimums Saturday afternoon
expected to reach the low teens to low 20s. Confidence in critical
RH is highest across northern NV, but decreases with northward
extent due to the potential for mitigating cloud cover (though
20-25% RH appears probable based on latest ensemble solutions).
Sustained winds near 20 mph are likely across northern NV with
stronger winds near 25 mph expected for portions of the Snake River
Plain. Gusts between 30-40 mph appear probable for both regions.
Critical fire weather conditions are expected, and elevated
conditions may extend as far east as southwest WY (though fuels are
not as receptive with eastward extent).

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Moisture return into the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies will be
modest ahead of the approaching wave. PWAT values near 0.6 to 0.8
inches are expected across much of the region based on forecast
soundings. Lift along a diffuse cold front, coupled with modest
instability, will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
western to central MT Saturday afternoon. Recent hi-resolution
ensemble guidance hints that a mix of wet/dry convection is
possible, though fast storm motions may limit accumulations. Fuel
status remains uncertain given recent rainfall over the western half
of MT, but areas that remain dry by Saturday afternoon may see a
low-end dry thunderstorm risk.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...