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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022

Valid 261700Z - 271200Z

No changes have been made to the outlook. See the previous
discussion below for more information.

..Dean.. 08/26/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain limited outside of the northern
Great Basin today. An upper-level trough over the northern Rockies
is forecast to gradually shift east into the Plains over the next 24
hours, which will support lee troughing along the northern to
central High Plains with generally weakening flow over the West.
Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across parts
of MT under the upper wave, but the overall fire weather threat will
remain limited.

...Northern Great Basin...
Although stronger mid-level flow will gradually depart the region to
the east through the day, continued zonal winds over the northern
Sierra Nevada will promote sufficient downslope warming/drying for
elevated wind/RH conditions across northern NV this afternoon. RH
values, struggling to climb out of the teens/low 20s overnight, will
likely fall into the teens (and perhaps single digits) this
afternoon as winds increase to around 15 mph. Latest ERC estimates
suggests fuels are adequately dry to support at least a low-end fire
weather concern.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
The 00 UTC TFX and OTX soundings sampled cold temperatures aloft
under the northern Rockies upper-level trough. These thermodynamic
conditions will persist for today and support modest, but
sufficient, instability for convection by late afternoon despite
decreasing PWAT values within the dry slot of the upper low.
Forecast soundings suggest MUCAPE values may increase to around 250
J/kg with 2-3 km deep sub-cloud layers, favorable for dry lightning
potential. Furthermore, storm motions near 20-30 knots may act to
limit precipitation accumulations. While a few dry thunderstorms are
possible from western to central MT this afternoon, fuel status is
questionable after swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours
(per latest MRMS estimates).

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...