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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Northeast
States on Friday.

...Northeast...
A shortwave trough is expected to move from Ontario and the Upper
Great Lakes eastward/northeastward through the Quebec and the
Northeast states on Friday. An associated surface low will take a
similar track just ahead of its parent shortwave, beginning the
period over Lake Ontario before then moving northeastward across
southern Quebec and northern ME. A cold front attendant to this low
will push eastward across New England. 

Mid 60s dewpoints are anticipated ahead of this cold front, helping
to support moderate buoyancy amid filtered diurnal heating.
Additionally, enhanced mid-level flow (i.e., around 40 kt at 500 mb)
will spread across the region ahead of the shortwave. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop in one or more bands along and
ahead of front. A predominantly multicellular storm mode is
anticipated across the region, but the co*bination of shear and
buoyancy will support some stronger storms/bowing line segments
capable of damaging wind gusts. A few supercells are also possible,
particularly from eastern NY into far western ME, where a corridor
of low-level southerly winds is anticipated. In addition to damaging
wind gusts, a low probability threat for hail and a tornado or two
is possible with any supercells that develop.

...Northern High Plains/Western Dakotas...
A slow-moving upper low is forecast to begin the period over western
MT, before beco*ing more progressive and evolving into an open wave
as it moves into the western Dakotas/southern Saskatchewan. A weak
surface low will acco*pany this shortwave, moving ahead of it across
southeast MT and into ND. 

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across western SD
early Friday morning, with associated cloud cover possibly tempering
diurnal heating and air mass destabilization throughout the day.
Additionally, recent guidance suggests the shortwave may not be as
amplified as indicated in previous runs. These factors cast
uncertainty on potential convective initiation during the afternoon,
which in turn reduces the probability of severe thunderstorms.
Isolated damaging wind gusts are still anticipated, particularly
over central MT, but coverage across the region is now expected to
remain less than 5%.

..Mosier.. 08/25/2022