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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the
contiguous United States on Thursday.

...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains...
A slow-moving and weakening mid-level low will move east across the
northern Rockies into the northern High Plains.  Widely scattered to
scattered diurnal thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the
afternoon over the higher terrain of western into southern MT and
near the Big Horns/Black Hills.  Models continue to indicate that
heating will be tempered in some areas due to partial cloud cover. 
However, steepening low-level lapse rates and large directional
shear contributing to modest deep-layer shear, will support
intermittently organized multicells.  Given the marginal character
of the potential storm intensity, will defer the highlighting of low
wind probabilities for the time being.

..Mid MS Valley...
A cold front, associated with a shortwave trough moving through the
Upper Great Lakes, is expected to move southward through the Mid MS
Valley Thursday afternoon and evening. Dewpoints will likely be in
the upper 60s and temperatures in the mid 80s ahead of the front,
resulting in moderate buoyancy. Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms are anticipated across the region near the front.  A
few stronger updrafts could develop, but weak vertical shear will
limit storm intensity.

...Elsewhere...
Thunderstorms are also possible within the monsoonal moisture still
in place across the Southwest and central Rockies, and in the
vicinity of subtle upper low and associated surface low over the
Southeast and FL. In each of these regions, weak vertical shear
should keep the severe threat low.

..Smith.. 08/24/2022