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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a more zonal upper
pattern will be in place D4/Saturday morning. Several shortwave
troughs will be embedded within this more zonal flow, including one
that extends from southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba into the central
Plains and another entering the Pacific Northwest.

Thunderstorms are anticipated across the Upper Midwest on
D4/Saturday, as the eastward-moving shortwave trough interacts
with the moist airmass over the region. Storm severity will likely
be tempered by modest vertical shear and a preponderance of elevated
storms. This shortwave is expected to continue eastward on
D5/Sunday, with the southern portion of the wave beco*ing
increasingly less progressive than the northern portion.
Thunderstorms are again possible in the vicinity of this wave, but
storm severity will be tempered by modest buoyancy and weak shear.

Farther west, guidance has trended stronger with the shortwave
trough dropping southward across the Pacific Northwest on
D4/Saturday. This shortwave is then expected to traverse the
northern periphery of a ridge building across the Southwest, moving
eastward through northern NV on D5/Sunday and northeastward from
southern ID into southeast MT on D6/Monday. Limited low-level
moisture ahead of this system should keep thunderstorm coverage
isolated.

Guidance diverges early next week, particularly with the evolution
of the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough, limiting forecast
confidence after D6/Monday. There is some signal within the guidance
that strong shortwave trough will move across northeast Canada on
D8/Wednesday, with an associated front moving across the Upper Great
Lakes and Northeast.