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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A strong thunderstorm or two is possible across the northern High
Plains as well as the Mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. The
organized severe-thunderstorm threat appears relatively low at this
time.

...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains...
Upper ridging is forecast to be centered over the Four Corners early
Thursday. Some dampening of this ridging is anticipated throughout
the day as a slow-moving upper low moves through the northern
Rockies. A convectively augmented shortwave trough may precede this
upper low, moving from south-central MT/north-central WY eastward
into western Dakotas.

Thunderstorms are anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern
High Plains as the upper low interacts with the moist air mass over
the region, but cloud-cover associated with the preceding shortwave
will temper heating across much of the region. Additionally,
mid-level flow attendant to this low will remain modest, with most
guidance indicating 500-mb flow from 25 to 35 kt. A strong storm or
two is possible, particularly if there is less cloud cover than
anticipated, but overall severe coverage is expected to be less than
5%.

...Mid MS Valley...
A cold front, associated with a shortwave trough moving through the
Upper Great Lakes, is expected to move southward through the Mid MS
Valley Thursday afternoon and evening. Dewpoints will likely be in
the upper 60s and temperatures in the mid 80s ahead of the front,
resulting in moderate buoyancy. Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms are anticipated across the region as the front
interacts with this moist and buoyant air mass. Thermodynamic
conditions will likely support a few more robust updrafts, but weak
vertical shear should result in limited updraft duration and a
relatively confined severe-weather risk.

...Elsewhere...
Thunderstorms are also possible within the monsoonal moisture still
in place across the Southwest and central Rockies, and in the
vicinity of subtle upper low and associated surface low over the
Southeast and FL. In each of these regions, weak vertical shear
should keep the severe threat low.

..Mosier.. 08/24/2022