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Mesoscale Discussion 1714
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022

Areas affected...Portions of southern New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 231922Z - 232145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for mainly strong/gusty winds should
continue through the afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms has recently
consolidated across western MA/CT. This activity is being aided by a
slow moving upper trough/low over NY. While clouds have remained
persistent across much of New England today, some filtered diurnal
heating has occurred over parts of MA/RI/CT along and south of a
weak front. Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE across southern New
England should support current thunderstorm activity through the
rest of the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain fairly
modest (around 20-30 kt), but loose convective organization in the
form of multicells and small clusters appears possible. Isolated
strong/gusty downdraft winds around 35-45 kt should be the main
threat, such as a recent measured gust to 35 kt at KBAF at 1855Z.
Occasional, transient low-level rotation has also been noted over
the past hour or two with low-topped cells near the weak surface
boundary. The lack of stronger low-level winds and related 0-1 km
SRH should temper the tornado risk. The overall severe threat is
expected to remain very isolated due to the marginal deep-layer
shear, and watch issuance is not expected.

..Gleason/Grams.. 08/23/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON   41457327 42407271 42637206 42367104 42157064 41647109
            41517157 41447243 41457327