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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible this afternoon into
early evening over portions of Arizona.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic flow will persist over the
Great Lakes and northeast, as well as in a weaker, southern-stream
belt from the southern High Plains across the Tennessee Valley to
the Carolinas.  In the northern stream, a shortwave trough was
apparent in moisture-channel imagery from a vorticity max over
extreme eastern Lake Ontario south-southwestward across central PA,
to western NC.  This perturbation will deamplify as it moves east-
northeastward through the period, reaching eastern NY and the
Delmarva region by 00Z, and central New England by 12Z.  Scattered
thunderstorms are possible as associated cooler air aloft overlies
diurnally heated and very moist boundary layer over parts of New
England.  A few strong gusts capable of tree damage may occur. 
However, weak deep-layer lapse rates and a lack of low-level flow/
shear should preclude a threat for large hail or 50+ kt severe
gusts.

Minor southern-stream perturbations -- predominantly generated/
augmented by convection -- will move slowly east-northeastward
across a corridor from east TX to GA.  Scattered to locally numerous
thunderstorms are expected again in the very moist regime across
this region, beneath weak mid/upper-level winds and modest deep-
layer lapse rates.  Low-level shear may support transient/messy
supercell characteristics with an associated convective cluster near
an outflow/reinforced surface baroclinic zone that will line the
southern edge of this activity; however, the scenario is too
isolated/conditional for a severe outlook area.

Farther west, a small/cut-off cyclone over the BC/WA border region
is embedded within large-scale ridging, and should drift erratically
near its present position through the remainder of the period.  A
separate shortwave trough -- initially evident over southern SK --
is forecast to weaken slowly as it moves east-southeastward to
northern ND by 00Z and northern MN by 12Z.  To its south, another,
weaker perturbation was apparent from west-central MT south-
southeastward over western/central WY.  This feature should shift
eastward to eastern parts of MT/WY by 00Z, perhaps beco*ing
convectively augmented and phasing with the SK trough over the
eastern Dakotas by 12Z.  Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may
develop this afternoon over a broad area of the central/northern
Plains ahead of the aforementioned SK/MT/WY perturbations -- from
the NE Panhandle to central MT and northeastern ND -- and a severe
gust or isolated hail cannot be ruled out.  However, the potential
appears too uncertain and poorly focused for an unconditional
outlook area at this time.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over northern NY with cold
front across eastern NY, the Delmarva Peninsula, and eastern/
southern NC, beco*ing quasistationary over the Tennessee Valley and
Mid-South to a low near GGG, and a cold front again across central/
southwest TX.  This front will move slowly eastward over parts of
New England and over the outer Banks through the period, while
remaining/beco*ing quasistationary farther west.  Outflow boundaries
will be co*mon south of the front over the Gulf Coast States.

...AZ...
The most probable area for severe convective gusts over the CONUS
today is a corridor across parts of western to central/southern AZ. 
Widely scattered thunderstorms initiating mid/late afternoon over
the Mogollon Rim will move generally southwestward over a deep,
well-heated/mixed desert boundary layer late this afternoon into
this evening before dissipating.  MLCINH will be eroded
preferentially over the higher terrain of the rim, with a deep
midtropospheric layer of easterly to northeasterly flow slightly
stronger than yesterday.  Meanwhile, lower-elevation surface temps
in the upper 90s to lower 100s, and dewpoints remaining in the 50s
and 60s F through the mixing period, will contribute to 1500-2000
J/kg MLCAPE atop 1000-1500 J/kg DCAPE, in support of strong/locally
severe downdraft potential.

..Edwards/Jewell.. 08/23/2022